Gold Price Analysis: Will XAU/USD Hold Above 3320 or Break Lower?

Market Overview

Gold (XAU/USD) is currently trading around $3329, pressured after a failed attempt to sustain momentum above the $3340–$3345 resistance zone. The intraday drop reflects strong bearish participation, but price is now approaching a critical liquidity zone near $3320. This level will likely determine whether gold stages a short-term rebound or continues lower.

Technical Analysis (15-Minute Chart)

1. Price Action:
   Recent candlesticks show strong downside momentum, with sellers pushing price from $3345 down to $3329. A rejection wick at $3328 suggests initial buying interest, but momentum still favors the downside.

2. Volume Profile:
   The heaviest trading concentration sits between $3335–$3345, now acting as resistance. Below $3325, the profile thins out—implying that if $3320 breaks, price may fall rapidly toward $3310–$3300.

3. Indicators:

   • EMA 28 (at $3335) is now resistance, confirming bearish pressure.

   • Accumulation/Distribution Line continues to decline, showing outflows.

   • Volume spikes on the latest drop suggest strong seller dominance.

Key Levels to Watch

• Support: $3325–$3320 → major liquidity zone.

• Resistance: $3335–$3345 → volume cluster + EMA barrier.

• Downside Target: $3310–$3300 if $3320 fails.

• Upside Target: $3340–$3350 if buyers hold support.

Trading Scenarios

🔹 Bullish Scenario:

• Buy Zone: $3321–$3325.

• Stop Loss: Below $3308.

• TP1: $3335.

• TP2: $3345–$3350.

🔹 Bearish Scenario:

• Breakdown confirmation below $3320.

• Short Target: $3310–$3300.

• Stop Loss: Above $3330.

Macro Outlook

The medium-term outlook for gold remains supported by expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September, with markets pricing in over an 80% probability. However, short-term volatility persists as traders position ahead of Fed commentary and Jackson Hole. This means liquidity sweeps—both above and below key levels—are highly possible.

Conclusion

Gold (XAU/USD) is now sitting at a critical support area near 3320. A rebound from this zone could take price back toward 3340–3350, but a decisive break lower risks opening the door to 3310–3300. Traders should stay cautious and respect stop levels, as intraday volatility remains elevated.

⚠️ Risk Warning & Disclaimer
This analysis is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Trading gold and other financial instruments carries a high level of risk and may not be suitable for all investors. Market conditions can change rapidly, and past performance is not indicative of future results. You are solely responsible for your trading decisions.